Please read the README file in this repository.

Analysis of the most affected countries in Europe⮸

Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸

IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that the fit is good if it is shown.

The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.

Belgium⮸

Population $11,589,623$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $57,342$ on 2020-05-25

Best fit exponential: \(8.43 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(27.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{55,619.6}{1 + 10^{-0.049 (t - 40.5)}}\) (asimptote \(55,619.6\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $9,312$ on 2020-05-25

Best fit exponential: \(1.31 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.013t}\) (doubling rate \(23.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{9,020.0}{1 + 10^{-0.060 (t - 36.9)}}\) (asimptote \(9,020.0\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $32,733$ on 2020-05-25

Spain⮸

Population $46,754,778$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $235,400$ on 2020-05-25

Best fit exponential: \(4.9 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(32.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{226,157.8}{1 + 10^{-0.058 (t - 34.4)}}\) (asimptote \(226,157.8\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $26,834$ on 2020-05-25

Best fit exponential: \(5.46 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(30.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{27,213.0}{1 + 10^{-0.051 (t - 34.0)}}\) (asimptote \(27,213.0\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $58,190$ on 2020-05-25

United Kingdom⮸

Population $67,886,011$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $262,547$ on 2020-05-25

Best fit exponential: \(2.18 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.014t}\) (doubling rate \(21.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{268,323.6}{1 + 10^{-0.039 (t - 50.3)}}\) (asimptote \(268,323.6\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-10 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $36,996$ on 2020-05-25

Best fit exponential: \(4.13 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.014t}\) (doubling rate \(22.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{36,137.9}{1 + 10^{-0.048 (t - 41.3)}}\) (asimptote \(36,137.9\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $224,390$ on 2020-05-25

Italy⮸

Population $60,461,826$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $230,158$ on 2020-05-25

Best fit exponential: \(4.07 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(33.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{224,294.5}{1 + 10^{-0.042 (t - 41.8)}}\) (asimptote \(224,294.5\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $32,877$ on 2020-05-25

Best fit exponential: \(4.99 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(30.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{31,855.7}{1 + 10^{-0.042 (t - 43.6)}}\) (asimptote \(31,855.7\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-23 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $55,300$ on 2020-05-25

France⮸

Population $65,273,511$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $183,067$ on 2020-05-25

Best fit exponential: \(3.1 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(29.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{179,832.2}{1 + 10^{-0.058 (t - 39.7)}}\) (asimptote \(179,832.2\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $28,460$ on 2020-05-25

Best fit exponential: \(4.3 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(26.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{27,402.8}{1 + 10^{-0.059 (t - 37.9)}}\) (asimptote \(27,402.8\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $89,290$ on 2020-05-25

Sweden⮸

Population $10,099,265$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $33,843$ on 2020-05-25

Best fit exponential: \(2.39 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.014t}\) (doubling rate \(21.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{36,512.7}{1 + 10^{-0.032 (t - 57.8)}}\) (asimptote \(36,512.7\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $4,029$ on 2020-05-25

Best fit exponential: \(384 \times 10^{0.015t}\) (doubling rate \(19.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{4,071.6}{1 + 10^{-0.043 (t - 42.7)}}\) (asimptote \(4,071.6\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $24,843$ on 2020-05-25

Netherlands⮸

Population $17,134,872$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-02 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $45,647$ on 2020-05-25

Best fit exponential: \(7.43 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(28.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{44,513.3}{1 + 10^{-0.048 (t - 39.5)}}\) (asimptote \(44,513.3\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $5,849$ on 2020-05-25

Best fit exponential: \(909 \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(26.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,762.5}{1 + 10^{-0.048 (t - 37.6)}}\) (asimptote \(5,762.5\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-02 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $39,624$ on 2020-05-25

Ireland⮸

Population $4,937,786$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $24,698$ on 2020-05-25

Best fit exponential: \(2.95 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(24.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{24,344.2}{1 + 10^{-0.054 (t - 43.5)}}\) (asimptote \(24,344.2\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $1,606$ on 2020-05-25

Best fit exponential: \(155 \times 10^{0.015t}\) (doubling rate \(20.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,592.7}{1 + 10^{-0.060 (t - 42.6)}}\) (asimptote \(1,592.7\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $2,032$ on 2020-05-25

Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak⮸

List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)⮸

Slovenia recovered 99%
Luxembourg recovered 96%
Switzerland recovered 96%
Austria recovered 92%
Croatia recovered 91%
Andorra recovered 90%
Germany recovered 85%
Estonia recovered 84%
Slovakia recovered 83%
Denmark recovered 78%
Czechia recovered 54%
Italy recovered 49%
Bosnia and Herzegovina recovered 44%
Serbia recovered 35%
Romania recovered 29%
San Marino recovered 25%
Hungary recovered 24%
Bulgaria recovered 5%

Slovenia⮸

Population $2,078,938$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $1,469$ on 2020-05-25

Best fit exponential: \(481 \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(41.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,455.2}{1 + 10^{-0.054 (t - 24.8)}}\) (asimptote \(1,455.2\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $107$ on 2020-05-25

Best fit exponential: \(20.8 \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(27.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{104.1}{1 + 10^{-0.056 (t - 31.1)}}\) (asimptote \(104.1\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $16$ on 2020-05-25

Luxembourg⮸

Population $625,978$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $3,993$ on 2020-05-25

Best fit exponential: \(984 \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(36.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{3,829.9}{1 + 10^{-0.072 (t - 31.0)}}\) (asimptote \(3,829.9\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $110$ on 2020-05-25

Best fit exponential: \(24.6 \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(29.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{105.6}{1 + 10^{-0.050 (t - 28.6)}}\) (asimptote \(105.6\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $102$ on 2020-05-25

Switzerland⮸

Population $8,654,622$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $30,746$ on 2020-05-25

Best fit exponential: \(7.91 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(37.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{30,023.3}{1 + 10^{-0.063 (t - 31.0)}}\) (asimptote \(30,023.3\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-05 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $1,913$ on 2020-05-25

Best fit exponential: \(331 \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(28.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,876.8}{1 + 10^{-0.056 (t - 36.8)}}\) (asimptote \(1,876.8\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $633$ on 2020-05-25

Austria⮸

Population $9,006,398$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $16,539$ on 2020-05-25

Best fit exponential: \(4.49 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(38.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{15,663.3}{1 + 10^{-0.075 (t - 28.4)}}\) (asimptote \(15,663.3\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $641$ on 2020-05-25

Best fit exponential: \(133 \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(28.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{630.1}{1 + 10^{-0.059 (t - 30.9)}}\) (asimptote \(630.1\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $760$ on 2020-05-25