Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸
IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes
going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that
the fit is good if it is shown.
The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.
Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $57,342$ on 2020-05-25
Best fit exponential: \(8.43 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(27.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{55,619.6}{1 + 10^{-0.049 (t - 40.5)}}\) (asimptote \(55,619.6\))
Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $9,312$ on 2020-05-25
Best fit exponential: \(1.31 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.013t}\) (doubling rate \(23.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{9,020.0}{1 + 10^{-0.060 (t - 36.9)}}\) (asimptote \(9,020.0\))
Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $32,733$ on 2020-05-25
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $235,400$ on 2020-05-25
Best fit exponential: \(4.9 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(32.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{226,157.8}{1 + 10^{-0.058 (t - 34.4)}}\) (asimptote \(226,157.8\))
Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $26,834$ on 2020-05-25
Best fit exponential: \(5.46 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(30.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{27,213.0}{1 + 10^{-0.051 (t - 34.0)}}\) (asimptote \(27,213.0\))
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $58,190$ on 2020-05-25
Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $262,547$ on 2020-05-25
Best fit exponential: \(2.18 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.014t}\) (doubling rate \(21.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{268,323.6}{1 + 10^{-0.039 (t - 50.3)}}\) (asimptote \(268,323.6\))
Start date 2020-03-10 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $36,996$ on 2020-05-25
Best fit exponential: \(4.13 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.014t}\) (doubling rate \(22.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{36,137.9}{1 + 10^{-0.048 (t - 41.3)}}\) (asimptote \(36,137.9\))
Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $224,390$ on 2020-05-25
Start date 2020-02-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $230,158$ on 2020-05-25
Best fit exponential: \(4.07 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(33.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{224,294.5}{1 + 10^{-0.042 (t - 41.8)}}\) (asimptote \(224,294.5\))
Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $32,877$ on 2020-05-25
Best fit exponential: \(4.99 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(30.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{31,855.7}{1 + 10^{-0.042 (t - 43.6)}}\) (asimptote \(31,855.7\))
Start date 2020-02-23 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $55,300$ on 2020-05-25
Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $183,067$ on 2020-05-25
Best fit exponential: \(3.1 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(29.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{179,832.2}{1 + 10^{-0.058 (t - 39.7)}}\) (asimptote \(179,832.2\))
Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $28,460$ on 2020-05-25
Best fit exponential: \(4.3 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(26.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{27,402.8}{1 + 10^{-0.059 (t - 37.9)}}\) (asimptote \(27,402.8\))
Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $89,290$ on 2020-05-25
Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $33,843$ on 2020-05-25
Best fit exponential: \(2.39 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.014t}\) (doubling rate \(21.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{36,512.7}{1 + 10^{-0.032 (t - 57.8)}}\) (asimptote \(36,512.7\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $4,029$ on 2020-05-25
Best fit exponential: \(384 \times 10^{0.015t}\) (doubling rate \(19.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{4,071.6}{1 + 10^{-0.043 (t - 42.7)}}\) (asimptote \(4,071.6\))
Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $24,843$ on 2020-05-25
Start date 2020-03-02 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $45,647$ on 2020-05-25
Best fit exponential: \(7.43 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(28.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{44,513.3}{1 + 10^{-0.048 (t - 39.5)}}\) (asimptote \(44,513.3\))
Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $5,849$ on 2020-05-25
Best fit exponential: \(909 \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(26.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,762.5}{1 + 10^{-0.048 (t - 37.6)}}\) (asimptote \(5,762.5\))
Start date 2020-03-02 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $39,624$ on 2020-05-25
Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $24,698$ on 2020-05-25
Best fit exponential: \(2.95 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(24.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{24,344.2}{1 + 10^{-0.054 (t - 43.5)}}\) (asimptote \(24,344.2\))
Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $1,606$ on 2020-05-25
Best fit exponential: \(155 \times 10^{0.015t}\) (doubling rate \(20.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,592.7}{1 + 10^{-0.060 (t - 42.6)}}\) (asimptote \(1,592.7\))
Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $2,032$ on 2020-05-25